Essays about: "Conjunction fallacy"

Showing result 1 - 5 of 6 essays containing the words Conjunction fallacy.

1. 1. Avoiding the conjunction fallacy: Who can take a hint?

   University essay from Umeå universitet/Institutionen för psykologi

   Author : Simon Klein; [2017]
   Keywords : Conjunction fallacy; nested-sets; need-for-cognition; NFC; numeracy; cognitive reflection; individual differences; debiasing.;

   Abstract : Humans repeatedly commit the so called “conjunction fallacy”, erroneously judging the probability of two events occurring together as higher than the probability of one of the events. Certain hints have been shown to mitigate this tendency. READ MORE

3. 2. Are normative probabilty judgments a "system two"-operation?

   University essay from Umeå universitet/Institutionen för psykologi

   Author : Joakim Carlberg; [2017]
   Keywords : Sytem 1 and system 2; Conjunction fallacy; Dual processing; Probability judgments; Linda-problem; Fast and slow processes; Representativeness heuristic; Atribute substitution; Response time; System 1 och system 2; Konjunktionsfelet; Sannolikhetsbedömningar; Linda-problemet; Snabba och långsamma processer; Representativitet; Attribut substitution; Reaktionstid;

   Abstract : Previous research on human judgment and decision making has demonstrated systematic and predictable biases of judgment in experimental settings. One example of this is the tendency to intuitively violate the conjunction rule - a simple rule of probability. This was well illustrated in the famous Linda-problem. (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983). READ MORE

4. 3. Exploring the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment: Conversational implicature or extension neglect?

   University essay from Stockholms universitet/Psykologiska institutionen

   Author : Amos Pagin; [2017]
   Keywords : conjunction fallacy; probability judgment; decision making; cognitive psychology;

   Abstract : According to the conjunction rule of probability theory, a conjunction of events cannot be more probable than either conjunct. However, participants often violate this rule in experimental settings, thus committing the conjunction fallacy. READ MORE

5. 4. The Conjunction Fallacy from a Safety Culture Perspective - An Experimental Study

   University essay from Stockholms universitet/Psykologiska institutionen

   Author : Johan Alexander Nordgren; [2016]
   Keywords : Safety Culture; Blame Culture; Criticism; Negative feedback; mood; affect; CRT; Cognitive Reflection Test; The Conjunction Fallacy; Experiment; High reliability organizations; HRO;

   Abstract : Heuristic estimates of probabilities may be an obstacle to decision making within High Reliability Organizations. Accident reports have found that two from each other separate phenomenon, Blame Culture and Type 1 processing constitutes a particularily serious threat to decision making. READ MORE

6. 5. Does providing a subtle reasoning hint remedy the conjunction fallacy?

   University essay from Umeå universitet/Institutionen för psykologi

   Author : Dimitris Stergiadis; [2015]
   Keywords : Conjunction fallacy; reasoning hint; nested sets;

   Abstract : Humans are in general poor at making judgments that adhere to the logical principles of probability theory. One demonstration of this is termed the “conjunction fallacy”: judging a conjunction (A&B) as being more probable than its constituent (A). READ MORE