Essays about: "forecast modelling"

Showing result 1 - 5 of 68 essays containing the words forecast modelling.

1. 1. Volatility Forecasting - A comparative study of different forecasting models.

   University essay from

   Author : Emil Sturesson; Anton Wennström; [2023-06-29]
   Keywords : Volatility; GARCH; EGARCH; t-GAS; HAR-RV; Realized GARCH; Volatility Forecasting; Volatility Modelling;

   Abstract : This study evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting performance of different volatility mod- els. When applied to XACT OMXS30, we use GARCH(1,1), EGARCH(1,1), and t- GAS(1,1) to forecast squared daily returns while Realized GARCH(1,1) and HAR-RV are used to forecast Realized Variance. READ MORE

3. 2. On modelling OMXS30 stocks - comparison between ARMA models and neural networks

   University essay from Uppsala universitet/Matematiska institutionen

   Author : Irina Zarankina; [2023]
   Keywords : ARMA; ARIMA; LSTM; time series; statistics;

   Abstract : This thesis compares the results of the performance of the statistical Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the neural network Long short-term model (LSTM) on a data set, which represents a market index. Both models are used to predict monthly, daily, and minute close prices of the OMX Stockholm 30 Index. READ MORE

4. 3. Volatility Modelling in the Swedish and US Fixed Income Market : A comparative study of GARCH, ARCH, E-GARCH and GJR-GARCH Models on Government Bonds

   University essay from Linköpings universitet/Nationalekonomi; Linköpings universitet/Filosofiska fakulteten

   Author : Sebastian Mortimore; William Sturehed; [2023]
   Keywords : GARCH; ARCH; GJR-GARCH; E-GARCH; ARMA; Government Bonds; Volatility; Loss functions; Fixed Income Market and realized volatility.; ARCH; GARCH; GJR-GARCH; E-GARCH; Statsobligationer och Volatilitet;

   Abstract : Volatility is an important variable in financial markets, risk management and making investment decisions. Different volatility models are beneficial tools to use when predicting future volatility. The purpose of this study is to compare the accuracy of various volatility models, including ARCH, GARCH and extensions of the GARCH framework. READ MORE

5. 4. Anticipating Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs): an impact-based forecasting framework for managing GLOF risks in Nepal.

   University essay from Lunds universitet/Avdelningen för Riskhantering och Samhällssäkerhet

   Author : Grace Muir; [2023]
   Keywords : Anticipatory Action; Impact-based Forecasting; Glacier Lake Outburst Flood; Nepal; Risk-informed Early Action; Prediction; Disaster Risk Management; Science General;

   Abstract : Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are an increasingly documented threat across the Himalayan region, wherein Nepal is situated. GLOFs involve a rapid discharge of water from a lake situated at the side, front, within, beneath, or on the surface of a glacier. READ MORE

6. 5. Portfolio Risk Modelling in Venture Debt

   University essay from KTH/Matematisk statistik

   Author : John Eriksson; Jacob Holmberg; [2023]
   Keywords : Startup Default Probability; Venture Debt; Gaussian Copula; Value-at-Risk; Expected Shortfall; Exposure at Default; Loss Given Default; Forecast; Linear Dynamic System; ARIMA Time Series; Monte Carlo Simulation; Linear Regression; Central Limit Theorem;

   Abstract : This thesis project is an experimental study on how to approach quantitative portfolio credit risk modelling in Venture Debt portfolios. Facing a lack of applicable default data from ArK and publicly available sets, as well as seeking to capture companies that fail to service debt obligations before defaulting per se, we present an approach to risk modeling based on trends in revenue. READ MORE