Alternative cost-optimal pathways for the transport sector of Cyprus

Abstract: This thesis investigates the possible future pathways for the road transportation sector of Cyprus, in a time horizon from the year 2013 to 2040. The road transportation sector of Cyprus is the most energy consuming sector in the country, completely dependent on the use of diesel and gasoline. In order to comply with the renewable energy target for the transportation sector set by the European Union, Cyprus needs to transform its road transportation sector. The software MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact) is used to model the road transport sector, consisting of passenger and freight transportation. The results of the modelling provides insights into the most cost-effective pathways for Cyprus in the future. In addition to the reference scenario, four different scenarios are examined. These scenarios are focusing on different relevant aspects for Cyprus which are renewable energy, natural gas, public transport and hydrogen. The results of the study indicate that the total numbers of petroleum fueled vehicles will increase in the future, and the freight transport will be particularly difficult to transform. For the passenger transport, there will be a fuel switch from gasoline to diesel, since diesel is less expensive than gasoline. There are possibilities for increasing the numbers of alternative low-carbon emitting vehicle technologies in Cyprus. For the passenger transport, the most cost-effective low-carbon vehicle technologies are hybrid diesel electric cars, plug-in hybrid diesel electric cars and hybrid electric diesel buses. For the freight transport, the most cost-effective low-carbon vehicle technologies are natural gas heavy trycks and electric light trucks. Lastly, the results of the study indicate that it will not be possible for Cyprus to reach the renewable energy target for the transportation sector. The country has to investigate in taxation schemes for increasing the numbers of alternative vehicles as well as increasing the blends of biofuels into gasoline and diesel.