Building predictive models for dynamic line rating using data science techniques

Abstract: The traditional power systems are statically rated and sometimes renewable energy sources (RES) are curtailed in order not to exceed this static rating. The RES are curtailed because of their intermittent character and therefore, it is difficult to predict their output at specific time periods throughout the day. Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) technology can overcome this constraint by leveraging the available weather data and technical parameters of the transmission line. The main goal of the thesis is to present prediction models of Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) capacity on two days ahead and on one day ahead. The models are evaluated based on their error rate profiles. DLR provides the capability to up-rate the line(s) according to the environmental conditions and has always a much higher profile than the static rating. By implementing DLR a power utility can increase the efficiency of the power system, decrease RES curtailment and optimize their integration within the grid. DLR is mainly dependent on the weather parameters and specifically, in large wind speeds and low ambient temperature, the DLR can register the highest profile. Additionally, this is especially profitable for the wind energy producers that can both, produce more (until pitch control) and transmit more in high wind speeds periods with the same given line(s), thus increasing the energy efficiency.  The DLR was calculated by employing modern Data Science and Machine Learning tools and techniques and leveraged historical weather and transmission line data provided by SMHI and Vattenfall respectively. An initial phase of Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) was developed to understand data patterns and relationships between different variables, as well as to determine the most predictive variables for DLR. All the predictive models and data processing routines were built in open source R and are available on GitHub. There were three types of models built: for historical data, for one day-ahead and for two days-ahead time-horizons. The models built for both time-horizons registered a low error rate profile of 9% (for day-ahead) and 11% (for two days-ahead). As expected, the predictive models built on historical data were more accurate with an error as low as 2%-3%.  In conclusion, the implemented models met the requirements set by Vattenfall of maximum error of 20% and they can be applied in the control room for that specific line. Moreover, predictive models can also be built for other lines if the required data is available. Therefore, this Master Thesis project’s findings and outcomes can be reproduced in other power lines and geographic locations in order to achieve a more efficient power system and an increased share of RES in the energy mix