The small house market in the Stockholm region : A study of the impact of macroeconomic factors

Abstract:   Buying a house is for most people the biggest investment they will ever make. A lot of factors are taken in to consideration when looking for the perfect house; location, size, what state it is in and so forth. But since most people’s budgets are limited, the price is probably the most important aspect in the decision making process of buying a house. It is therefore highly interesting to note that since 1981, house prices in Sweden have increased with almost 400 percent. This thesis examines the relationship between small house prices and macroeconomic factors in the Stockholm region during the period 1991 to 2007. By using macro economic theories complemented by data for all Stockholm’s municipalities in a OLS regression, the thesis will explain how the variables affects the small house prices in a boom, recession and over time. The results and analysis reveals that as house prices rises, people tend to increase their spending on interest costs and vice versa if the prices falls. Furthermore, results show that in a boom, an existence of speculation is contributing to the rise while convergence is an important factor in a recession. The most important conclusion from this thesis is the fact that the influence of macroeconomic variables on house prices differs significantly, depending on if the economy is in a recession or a boom. Finally, the influence on the economy that the house- and real estate market possesses cannot be underestimated with its important effect on the credit market, inflation and asset market.