Self-Driving Cars: Diffusion of Radical Innovations and Technology Acceptance

Abstract: Abstract The self-driving car (SDC) is about to exit fantasy and enter reality. SDCs are expected to be available for purchase in just a few years, and the new technologies that enable autonomous driving hold much promise, regarding safety, environmental impact, increased mobility and higher comfortability. However, there are worrying prospects, too. Some experts worry that the autonomous car might in practice lead to higher rates of pollution and more time and money spent on commuting. By making personal transport more enjoyable, as well as safer, there is a risk of drastically increased rates of urban sprawl, which is harmful to both the environment and the economy. Gains in fuel-efficiency may be off-set by increased levels of driving, in accordance with the so-called Jevon’s Paradox of behavioral compensation. This paper examines the status and the expected projection of these technologies. Although SDC technology has been thought to be just around the corner several times before, this time is believed to be different. The key difference is that the SDCs considered in this paper will work independently, meaning that they do not require any external additions to infrastructure to function properly. The paper takes a customer-oriented perspective and provides insight to managers and decision- makers. It poses questions regarding technology acceptance: whether consumers will want to have cars that can drive themselves. To answer the questions posed, expert interviews and an expert survey have been carried out. Additionally, a substantial literary review was undertaken, much of which related to expectations on SDC technology, traffic issues, innovation and technology acceptance. A comprehensive model for measuring and assessing acceptance of SDCs, called the Robotic Car Acceptance Model or ROCAM, is proposed. Additionally, this paper lays out a detailed design of a possibly follow-up study. Two scenarios concerning the future of SDCs have been constructed, and these form the foundation of the proposed study.