A discrete choice model of transport chain and shipment size on Swedish commodity flow survey 2004/2005

Abstract: Freight demand models have not been developed that much as passenger demand models. The reason is existence of too many complexities in this area. To estimate a disaggregate freight transport models large input data is required. The Swedish Flow Commodity survey 2004/2005 (CFS) which is a unique data source at the level of individual firms made it possible to estimate a disaggregate model to analyze the choice of transport chains and shipment size for the domestic metal products. The output of logistics module of the Swedish national freight transport (SAMGODS) is used as an auxiliary database to incorporate logistics decisions which CFS lacks in the model. The model comprises logistics perspective by considering both shipment size and transport chains as endogenous choices. Characteristics of shippers, shipments and transport chains are included in the model to analyze the choice of transport chain and shipment size. It has been tried to include as many transport chains as possible in the choice sets to consider their effects on decision making. Transport costs have been included in the model as shipment size specific to incorporate the concept of logistics more precisely in the model. From the results it can be seen that the freight transport demand is almost inelastic to the cost. The model gives a positive sign for the coefficient of the transport time which can be explained as the storage cost is so high that shippers prefer to use transport modes as the moving inventories instead. Finally, it is suggested to estimate panel discrete choice models on this dataset.