Sunshine Tomorrow : Assessing the emission mitigation effects of photovoltaic systems in Sweden

Abstract: Global warming is an impending crisis that poses severe ecological and economic consequences if left unaddressed. The primary cause of this crisis is the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2), making it crucial to identify and implement effective emission-mitigating measures. One potential measure is renewable energy sources, such as photovoltaic (PV) systems. This study aims to estimate the emission mitigation effect of PV systems in Sweden, a country of interest due to its already high share of green energy production. This poses a challenge in predicting the emission mitigation effect of PV adoption, as it relies on replacing fossil-based power production. By using a municipality-level panel data set spanning the years 2016-2020 coupled with a multiple regression approach, a statistically insignificant relationship is found between CO2 emissions per capita and installed PV effect per capita in Sweden. This counter-intuitive and unfortunate result emphasises the difficulty of designing effective environmental policy.