The cost of climate change and adaptation measures in crop production on Gotland

Abstract: Current climate change is reducing precipitation in the southern Baltic Sea region, threatening agricultural production on the island of Gotland. The economy of Gotland is highly dependent on agriculture, as it employs 10% of the workforce. The sector produces vegetables that are popular on the mainland of Sweden. This thesis presents an investigation of the cost of predicted climate change in the Swedish region that includes Gotland, taking into account potential adaptation strategies in cropping patterns and irrigation. For this purpose, a farm profit maximisation model, where the net revenue was maximised given the limitations in water due to climate change, was developed. When the model was solved (in Ms Excel), the results showed that the net revenue risked decreasing even more if no adaptation measures were taken. The cost of maintaining the same level of production after climate change increased, suggesting that financial support is necessary to enable farmers to keeping producing as before. Arable crop production was most affected by climate change and would need particular support. These results can be useful for decision makers on Gotland regarding water use and production within the sector under climate change, but should not be used as a single tool due to uncertainty and sensitivity of the results. The results can also be applied to similar areas vulnerable to climate change-related water problems.