USING CASE-BASED REASONING FOR PREDICTING ENERGY USAGE

Abstract: In this study, the inability to in a future meet the electricity demand and the urge to change the consumption behavior considered. In a smart grid context there are several possible ways to do this. Means include ways to increase the consumer’s awareness, add energy storages or build smarter homes which can control the appliances. To be able to implement these, indications on how the future consumption will be could be useful. Therefore we look further into how a framework for short-term consumption predictions can be created using electricity consumption data in relation to external factors. To do this a literature study is made to see what kind of methods that are relevant and which qualities is interesting to look at in order to choose a good prediction method. Case Based Reasoning seemed to be able to be suitable method. This method was examined further and built using relational databases. After this the method was tested and evaluated using datasets and evaluation methods CV, MBE and MAPE, which have previously been used in the domain of consumption prediction. The result was compared to the results of the winning methods in the ASHRAE competition. The CBR method was expected to perform better than what it did, and still not as good as the winning methods from the ASHRAE competition. The result showed that the CBR method can be used as a predictor and has potential to make good energy consumption predictions. and there is room for improvement in future studies.