On Probabilistic Assessment of Life Safety in Buildings on Fire.

Abstract: This study deals with the assessment, using probabilistic methods, of people’s fire safety in buildings. The problem is addressed by modelling the evacuation of people from the fire- and smoke-threatened area. The buildings considered are assumed to be designed according to the Icelandic fire prevention regulation. The following types of buildings have been chosen for analysis: a dance hall, a sports hall, an office, a school, a hotel and an home for the elderly. For each case, a limit state function simulating the life safety is constructed. These functions are expressed in terms of analytical smoke development models and evacuation models. The analytical smoke development model is derived using the computer model, HAZARD. The analytical evacuation models account for detection time, response and behaviour time as well as the time needed for movements to a safe area. Each parameter in the limit state functions is described by an appropriate probability distribution. The probability of accidents is assessed using the safety index method, FORM. The b-indices are calculated, using the computer program package, STRUREL, for each limit state function and the sensitivity of various parameters is checked in order to detect the most important parameters.