Predicting Human Caused Fires : A GIS Analysis of Socioeconomic Variables and Wildfire Ignition in the Cranbrook Fire Zone, British Columbia, Canada

Abstract: Wildfire is a naturally occurring process that regenerates vegetation in forests.  However, these fire regimes are becoming increasingly altered by human beings.  This study attempts to predict the risk of human caused forest fire incidents in the Cranbrook Fire Zone in British Columbia, Canada.  A multi-criteria analysis using 16 spatial and socioeconomic variables was developed to produce three separate outputs, each having a different weighting and ranking scheme derived from either The Rank Method, or AHP Method.  Results were compared with point locations of human caused incidents from 1950 to 2008 and the accuracy of the model is very promising; however, further study and analysis is required for true validation.