Adolescent Marriage and Rainfall The Effect of Climate Change in Nepal and Uganda

Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between the amount of rainfall and the probability of adolescent marriage in two countries where marriage payments are prevalent: dowry in Nepal and bride price in Uganda. Dowry is a marital payment from the bride’s family to the groom, whereas bride price is the transfer from the groom to the bride’s family. Adolescent marriage is a short-term decision that has long-term consequences, as it often leads to domestic violence, lower educational attainment and early childbearing. We show that an increment of rainfall affect adolescent marriage and that the marital payment decides the sign of the effect. In Nepal, the relationship between rainfall and adolescent marriage is convex, whereas the relationship is concave in Uganda. In addition, the relationship between rainfall and the transition into secondary education is concave in both countries, indicating that the marginal effect of more rainfall is increasing at a decreasing rate.