Economic and Business cycle indicators : Accuracy, reliability and consistency of Swedish indicators

Abstract: Background: Economic and Business cycle indicators are used when predicting a country’s Gross Domestic Products, GDP. During recent time, Purchasing Managers Index and its ability to signal changes in the economy have received attention. It provides inconsistent signals since the financial crisis in 2008. Decision makers in the society rely on macroeconomic forecast when implementing strategic decisions. It is therefore necessary for indicators to provide correct signals in relation to GDP. Previous research about indicators’ stability is mostly conducted in the U.S. According to the authors’ knowledge, scarce research has been made in Sweden. The area lacks observations where a wider range of indicators is included to get a broader perspective of the economy. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine Swedish indicators and observe if they are stable and provide accurate, reliable and consistent signals in relation to GDP growth. Furthermore, the financial crisis in 2008 is used as a benchmark when observing stability and indicators’ predictive ability. Method: Ten indicators within the categories financial, survey-based and real economy indicators are selected. Quarterly data with a time period of maximum 1993-2013 are analyzed. The statistical tests conducted include Correlation, Cross-Correlation and Simple Linear Regression, an interaction term is also included to account for the financial crisis. Conclusion: The results show that nine out of ten indicators are unstable. Purchasing Managers Index show largest changes compared to other indicators. Industry Production index is the best performing indicator. When it comes to the categories; survey-based, financial and real-economy indicators, no category overall provide stability.