The Costs of Abatement - A Cost-effective Allocation of Swedish Phosphorus Abatement Concerning the Sea Basin of the Baltic Proper

Abstract: The Baltic See in general and the basin of the Baltic Proper in particular, has in the last decades severely been plagued by the effects of eutrophication caused by abundant flows of the nutrient substances phosphorus and nitrogen. This study has been concentrating on the Swedish load of phosphorus to the Baltic Proper and the measures available for reducing this load. This being a field where surprisingly few studies have been done up to date, a pioneering cost-effectiveness analysis has been conducted in order to find a cost-effective allocation of abatement measures. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the findings has further been performed in order to test the robustness of the base case results. Results of the study include estimated low total costs for low to moderate reductions of the phosphorus load, but significant higher cost for further reductions. Uncertainty of the total cost of abatement is additionally perceived as high and increasing with more ambitious reductions. This is mainly due to lacking knowledge about several of the driving forces behind the environmental problem of eutrophication. Measures that although could reduce the phosphorus load at relatively low costs include creating of small ponds in the agricultural landscape and measures at reducing the discharges from municipal wastewater treatment plants.