Modeling of energy utilization of tourism industry to predict the future energy demand to showcase Sri Lanka - The ‘Miracle of Asia’

Abstract: Tourism industry in Sri Lanka shares a substantial amount of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and predicts an immense expansion within a short time frame. Owing to its energy intensiveness and competitiveness, a scrutiny in the energy utilization and the related impact on the environment is crucial. Furthermore, trend towards ecotourism forces the requirement of foreseeing a green energy supply to meet the ever rising demand.   In this study, utilization of energy in the graded hotels in the country was modeled through LEAP (Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System) software to predict the future energy demand. Monthly energy consumption data for three consecutive years for a sample of hotels covering classified and unclassified hotel establishments were used for modeling. Four scenarios were then analyzed based on the baseline scenario representing the country’s tourism industry profile of year 2010.  It is shown that the energy intensiveness of the tourism industry will be overwhelming unless the DSM (Demand Side Management) tools are properly amalgamated for mitigation. Further the results of the study revealed that the existing electricity generation plan does not accommodate fuel diversification and energy mix, and needs revisions to induct renewable sources for greening energy supply of the country. The study provides an insight in identifying socially acceptable policy scenarios in energy supply and use of the tourism industry.