Return Migration from Sweden to Bosnia and Herzegovina : A Study of the Refugees who Arrived in 1993 and 1994

Abstract: This study analyzes the determinants of return migration from Sweden to Bosnia and Herzegovina, and outmigration to third country during the time period 1994-2003. The study is limited to the refugees who arrived to Sweden 1993-1994. One important aim is also to find out to what extent the propensity of return migration is affected by integration and participation in the Swedish labor market. There is a larger fraction of the refugees from Bosnia and Herzegovina who return than migrate to a third country. The results show that a higher education is affecting the return migration decision positively, but not the migration to another country. Since the social protection system in Bosnia and Herzegovina is partially undeveloped, only those with a well paid job or wealthy relatives can afford any mishaps. Highly educated individuals are expected to have these economical prerequisites. Being employed in Sweden or receiving social benefits there, give negative marginal effects on the probability of emigration. Therefore, the position on the Swedish labor market has importance for an emigration decision. Being married or having children decreases the probability of emigration. However, the family status effects are stronger for outmigration to a third country. Further, it is more likely for a family to return than emigrate to a third country. It is also more likely for women to return, while there is a larger fraction of men that migrate to a third country. Summarizing the most important findings, the probability of outmigration is strongly reduced by the level of integration. This is not only an analysis of individual micro data. The political and economic differences between home country and source country are also compared. Pull-factors seem to dominate return migration since Sweden has a more stabilized economic and political situation. However, the refugees must have strong economic prerequisites or wealthy relatives to support them, in order to realize a return migration decision. A large fraction of the refugees who wish to return do not have the possibilities to realize their return intentions. They consider themselves as temporary migrants, but have involuntary become permanent migrants in Sweden.