To Tame a Dragon : A qualitative content analysis of Germany's China Strategy after 'Zeitenwende'

Abstract: The Russian invasion of Ukraine constituted a turning point (Zeitenwende) for the German foreign policy tradition in that it thoroughly discredited Germany’s ‘change through trade’ approach to Russia. This approach has also historically been applied to China, whose foreign policy behavior is regarded as increasingly aggressive. This paper uses manifest content analysis to investigate to what extent the security-political realizations from Zeitenwende are reflected in Germany’s new China strategy. It argues that, while Zeitenwende has contributed to cognizance about the need to ‘de-risk’ economic relations with China and strengthen capacity within the EU, Germany remains fundamentally committed to its foreign policy tradition as well as the belief that China can be changed and integrated into the rules-based international order. It demonstrates the persistence of the ‘change through trade’ approach in a different form based on the strategy’s emphasis on dialogue and multilateralism as Germany’s preferred methods of conflict resolution.