Projecting invasive species using remote sensing and spatial explicit models

Abstract: An evaluation of the current and previous Rosa rugosa growth on Kieler Ort, Germany, with the aim to predict the rose coverage in future, under consideration of environmental factors. Kieler Ort, a rather isolated island in the southwest Baltic Sea is representing a unique environment which is protected for its landscape, nature, flora and fauna and serves as a bird sanctuary. Rosa rugosa, as one of the most invasive non-native plant species along northern Europe’s coastline, was noted on the island and is therefore endangering the islands unique biotope. The previous and current extent of Rosa rugosa was retrieved from aerial images for the years 1994, 2000, 2007 and 2016. The 2016 outcome was validated by collecting ground truth data. A Rosa rugosa coverage of 10.6% was identified for 2016. An analysis of elevation, aspect and wind in relation to the Rosa rugosa locations on Kieler Ort showed an aversion to low, near sea level elevations. A Rosa rugosa preference of eastern-facing slopes was observed, which corresponded to wind protect aspects on the island. The Rosa rugosa coverage of the 4 years had been analyzed by comparing two adjacent years (3 periods). The overall area increase of Rosa rugosa had been estimated to 11.5% per annum. For the future prediction a cellular automata, as spatial explicit model, has been implemented; and predicted a Rosa rugosa coverage on Kieler Ort of 30.3% in 2036.