Climate change implications on transboundary water management in the Jordan River Basin : A Case Study of the Jordan River Basin and the transboundary agreements between riparians Israel, Palestine and Jordan

Abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to explore the relationship between the impacts of climate change and transboundary water management (TWM) mechanisms. The thesis does so through a case study of the transboundary water agreements between Israel, Palestine and Jordan – states that share the transboundary waters in the Jordan River Basin (JRB), a basin that lies in a region of high political tensions and decreasing precipitation. By using empirical climate data on precipitation, temperature and general climate change projections for the basin, the author seeks to understand how these environmental changes will challenge TWM in the JRB. By using qualitative methods to examine the water agreements through the method of process tracing, the thesis seeks to understand how the water agreements are constructed to handle changes in waterflow due to climate change. The results show that the transboundary mechanisms, the water agreements and Joint Water Committees (JWC), managing the transboundary waters in the JRB, possess weak mechanisms to manage changes in waterflow. As a consequence, the whole basin might experience increasing political pressures in the future over the fulfilment of water allocation provisions. The thesis further suggests that the TWM structures in the case lack awareness and mechanisms to handle climate change impacts. On the other hand, the JWCs have an institutional capacity, expertise, and mandate in managing these potential risks in the future. However, incidents in the past, manifest that decreased waterflow leads to increasing political tensions and conflicts between the states in the basin due to the lack of conflict resolution mechanisms in the TWM structures. In order to establish a sustainable TWM in the JRB, the suggested recommendation is that climate change impacts ought to be embedded into the water agreements by incorporating flexible mechanisms for water allocation. In addition, the conflict resolution mechanisms should be strengthened.