Why the bear kicked the hornet’s nest : Causal processes of Russian foreign policy on Syria

Abstract: This paper examines causal mechanisms of the process leading up to the Russian military intervention in Syria that began in September 2015. It aims to concretize the causal processes of three different hypotheses that are based on commonplace assumptions of Russian foreign policy on Syria. It thoroughly explores three different causal paths, mapping events that may have had implications to the apparent change of heart within the Russian leadership. The paper analyses the relevance of these processes through a rational choice theory framework.