Understanding the relationship between property development and Bus Rapid Transit : A spatiotemporal analysis of transit oriented development in Curitiba, Brazil

Abstract: The city of Curitiba in southern Brazil is considered to be the cradle of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system. Curitiba has a population of around 1.9 million people and has a higher development index than Brazil in general. A master plan approved in the middle of the 1960’s has guided development of the city in a Transit Oriented Development (TOD) direction by zoning for high development densities close to the five BRT trunk lines in so-called structural axes. This thesis aimed at performing a spatiotemporal and statistical analysis of property development in Curitiba, to examine if the BRT system could have been a motivator for property development, and if so, to what extent. Spatial data including for instance a database of building permits, population densities, social housing locations and cost of land were used in the analysis. The analysis was divided into three themes to examine property development from three perspectives; Timing of Development, Density of Development and Social Housing Inclusion. Results for the entire BRT system showed that a greater “time lag” of property development following BRT development also meant that the property in question was located further away from a BRT line, suggesting that areas close to the BRT were popular. The individual lines showed different effects of timing of development, relating to the heterogenic surroundings and the characteristics of the time periods when the BRT was implemented. High development densities are found in the structural corridors, but high population densities are not only found there but also in areas in the South and Southwest parts of Curitiba. These areas coincide with areas of social housing, which historically has been planned in areas not served by the trunk lines of the BRT system. The conclusion of the thesis is that the BRT system certainly has been a motivator for property development, and that TOD planning with thoughtful zoning can be a powerful tool to direct property development. In order to counteract urban segregation, strategies for including social housing in the structural axes must be implemented.