Sustainable futures of mobility : Transition narratives for policy design and assessment tools

Abstract: The thesis explores a possible sustainable future of mobility and the transition pathwayto it, focusing on the socio-cultural dimensions that shape and drive the way mobilityis understood. Goal-driven, transition-oriented policy recommendations are providedas the main result, derived from a combined backcasting and forecasting methodologyframework. The successful combination of backcasting and Causal Loop Diagrams isachieved by homogenising the outcomes of each assessment through the logic of theMulti-Level Perspective of transitions theory. The research highlights that reinforcing feedback mechanisms and a deeply embeddedculture of automobility are behind the enormous inertia and resilience of the currentmobility system. If a transition to a sustainable mobility future is to happen, the insightsgained from this study point to a necessary shift in cultural trends. The discourses ofunrestricted individual freedom, private property and materialistic cultures that legitimiseautomobility must be challenged. The thesis proves that the Multi-Level Perspective on transitions provides with a narrativecapable of integrating results from inherently different approaches to future studies. Themethodological framework developed in the study is generalisable and useful for situationswhere a normative goal in the distant future is pursued, while accounting for the reasonsbehind policy resistance in the current system configuration.