Population aging and enrollment ratios in tertiary education: does population aging elevate the enrollment ratio in OECD countries?

Abstract: This study examines possibility of positive contribution of population aging to enrolment ratios in tertiary education of 32 OECD countries from 1970 onward. It estimates an equation with fertility, life expectancy, GDP per capita, schooling age population for tertiary education and expenditures to education. In the equation, the variables reflect demand, supply and constraints on education identified in literature review. The result unexpectedly indicates negative or negligible impact of population aging on the enrollment ratio for countries likely suffering from educational supply constraint. Positive relationship between population aging and the enrollment ratio is suggested only for less developed OECD countries with a little educational supply constraint. The results overall urge reconsideration of the assumption of recent population aging simulations that population aging stimulates human capital accumulation in developed countries.