Energiewendes påverkan på det nordiska kraftsystemet

Abstract: Both the German and the Nordic power markets are seeing dramatically changed conditions due to an ongoing process of expanding the share of renewable production in the systems. For the German part this comes from heavy subsidies which have led to an explosive development in installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind based production. After the Fukushima incident it has been decided to shut down all Germanys nuclear plants. This capacity drop is however not of the same magnitude as the increase in renewables, but will impact the stability of the power system. The Nordic power system which already has a surplus of power sees an even further increase, coming mainly from construction of new nuclear plants in Finland and a general increase in wind farms. The question that is assessed is how the Nordic system, where the producers are already depending on exporting their surplus to the continent, will be affected by the new altered conditions in Germany. The approach is to analyzing how and when the Nordic system is dependent on the German system. The new conditions in Germany are then estimated by using past data of power consumption, exchange, wind and photovoltaic. By subtracting the intermittent production, the so called residual load is estimated and by regressing the residual load on the actual prices, it is possible to get a fairly accurate estimate of the marginal effect of one extra unit produced or consumed. The historical data is then scaled with the estimated new capacities of photovoltaic, wind and nuclear. This gives an estimated probability of the residual load as it could be in 2020 based on the weather and demand conditions from the sample set of 2008 to October 2013. The new residual load gives a price probability for different hours of the year which in turn can be matched with the Nordic export patterns to see the impact on the Nordic power system. It turns out that during a normal year the impact will not be that great. However in a wet year there will be problems exporting as many hours as wanted without occasionally dropping prices to a very low level, and for shorter periods of time there will be problems exporting at all which can lead to depressed price in the Nordic.