Utveckla eller avveckla : varför väljer vissa av Milkos medlemmar att utveckla sin mjölkproduktion medan andra avvecklar?

Abstract: The Swedish dairy sector is facing several challenges the coming years. One big challenge is how they will secure the access of their raw material milk in the future. The number of milk producers has decreased for an extended period of time, but was for a long time partly compensated by an increased productivity among the remaining milk producers. From year 2000 that trend was broken and also the quantity of milk produced started to fall quickly. Milko is a dairy company with members from Dalsland in the south to Jämtland in the north. During the first seven moths 2007, their number of members decreased by almost a fourth, from 1 272 to 974. At the same time the prices of milk powder ascended and it implied that each lost liter of milk for Milko became a big economic loss. The aim with the thesis work is to get an understanding of what makes some of Milkos members to develop and others to quit their milk production. The thesis work also aims to recommend applicable actions that the dairy industry can use in order to turn the negative trend. The study is based on a questionnaire that was sent to 500 of Milkos members. In the questionnaire, the milk producers were asked questions about their situation as milk producer. The response rate of the questionnaire was 61 percent. When the replies were put together, the milk producers where divided in three groups with respect to their plans for the future. Of those who replied on the questionnaire 23,6 percent stated that they will make a larger expansion of the farm's milk production within five years, while 23,9 percent stated that the milk production will be liquidated. Remaining farmers stated that they intend to continue as before. The group that distinguishes itself against the other groups are those who will develop. They are relatively young and educated and have the experience that the profitability in the milk production is not so poor. They have the highest expectations of the profitability in the future and they gladly see that the company grows. The developers do not hesitate to employ people and they more often engage counsellors. Those who will continue as before have higher expectations of the future than those who will quit, and they consider it as more probable that someone is willing to take over their milk production when they quit. In the conclusion of the thesis work, nine conclusions are presented that constitutes the most important factors to the different groups' differences in plans for the future. The nine conclusions are: 1. That there exists a successor. 2. To think as an entrepreneur. 3. To dare to take economic risks. 4. The value of education. 5. To discuss milk production. 6. Attitudes among colleagues. 7. The role as an employer. 8. To be able to be free from work. 9. Not to be dependent on the milk price. Recommended actions for the dairy industry is among others to improve the information to the members, to develop and stimulate further education and to facilitate for young people to begin as milk producers.