Uncertainty Management for Knowledge Maturity in a High-Consequence Industry

Abstract: In industries where risks involve high consequences, uncertainties are cause for concern, espe-cially in early stages of producing a product or service when less is known about the final de-sign. To counteract this, uncertainties must be managed during evaluations to reach the best decision possible. The purpose of this research is to assert how to manage uncertainties in the early stages of designing a product or service for a high-consequence risk company using the concept of knowledge maturity and descriptive decision based methods to assess uncertainty. As such, it was assessed how a high-consequence risk company deals with and manages un-certainties in early product development. It was then determined how uncertainties could be managed in design engineering. This was fulfilled by conducting semi-structured interviews with staff at GKN, an aerospace company that deals with extensive uncertainties in a high-consequence industry. To complement this, literary reviews were conducted encompassing uncertainty assessments in design engineering. The findings showed that uncertainty in the early stages of design is either lingered on until more information is made available or circum-vented by developed mitigation plans. It was also discovered how evaluations are carried out in early design considering uncertainty. Lastly the findings implicate that uncertainty assess-ments are applicable through use of descriptive decision based models coupled with a knowledge maturity scale in a stage gated process.