Modelling of panicking pedestrians during emergency evacuation.

Abstract: ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Abstract Department of Mathematics Division of Optimization and Systems Theory Bachelor of Science Modelling of panicking pedestrians during emergency evacuation by Eric Leijonmarck and Thomas Olergard Simulation of egress is vital for minimizing casualties during disasters, however accurate simulations are scarce and real life data is hard to come by. We have created a mathematical model using Matlab TMto simulate escaping pedestrians during a panic situation using the Social Force Model. The model has additional forces implemented both for improving the Social Force Model and to implement a panic behavior. The panic level is determined by elapsed time, velocity dierence, inuence of adjacent agents and solitude. Each simulated agent is evaluated as an independent actor that navigates according to its local perception of the dynamic environment, the laws of simulated physics that regulates its motion, and a set of behavioral rules. For further enhancement of the model, simulations are evaluated and used for improvements to the panic behavior. The model simulates a primitive panicking crowd with a given oor plan, and a re blocking an exit. The conclusion is that CEPABS exhibits somewhat realistic human behaviors and evacuees close to re are more likely to take fatal risks, with increased panic level, the evacuees have a higher fatality rate. The conclusions given above should be taken lightly, as CEPABS need further evaluation, improvements and verication by empirical data before CEPABS can be applied to practical situations.