The determining trends of the retail payment market

Abstract: The retail payment market can be seen as a high velocity market, where the rate of change is high. The future for the retail payment market is uncertain to a large extent. A relatively new phenomenon is the entrance of third party payment providers (hereafter; TPP) who are utilizing the incumbent banks account infrastructure in order access information or initiate payments. A legislation named PSD2 will increase the TPP’s possibilities to utilize the bank’s infrastructure. This makes it possible for TPP to offer new innovative solutions to the end customer. The incumbent actors on the retail payment market have not been successful in regards to innovation, which have given fintech companies room to grow, both in size and numbers. However, the incumbent actors do still possess a strong position, but are frequently challenged by new startups who also want to initiate payments. Historically, the entrance barrier to the retail payment market have been high and the incumbent actors have had an oligopoly position. It has resulted in a lack of competition and a low innovation rate. However, this is starting to change because of new initiatives from EU, where the aim is to increase competition and facilitate a well- functioning retail payment market. Therefore, the increased competition from fintech startups is a relatively new phenomenon and most actors in the retail payment market think it is a beneficial evolution, except few representatives from the incumbent players who are worried that their existing competitive advantages will be outdated. This study provides a picture of how the retail payment market can develop in the future. By determining the most critical trends, it becomes clear what is driving the retail payment market and how the dynamic between actors is changing. In order to get the necessary insights to fulfil the purpose, 18 interviews have been conducted with different stakeholders to the retail payment market. The variation of perspectives of the interviewees give this study a depth that in the end enhance the validity of the result. It is hard to predict the future in a market characterized by high velocity, hence, it is important to understand what trends have the strongest influence on the market. By analysing the interviews, six trends were identified as having a huge impact on the payment market. 1. Merchants are pushing EU to regulate to their favour 2. Access to the information created when conducting payments 3. Incumbent banks have a hard time adopting to new changes 4. New technical solutions enable more actors to create payment solutions with global coverage 5. Actors without payment as core business enter the market 6. New regulations, such as PSD2, aims to increase competition on the retail payment market. Two of these six trends have been identified to be particularly uncertain and having a huge impact on the development of the retail payment market. Furthermore, these two trends are characterised by a dichotomy and the development of them will influence the market in four distinctively different ways. The first dichotomy is whether it becomes easy to be compliant with new legislations, or not. The study shows that if it becomes a heavy burden being compliant with PSD2 and using the technical standard for XS2A, the market will be characterized by economies of scale. If it on the other hand becomes is easy being compliant with PSD2 and initiate payments through XS2A, the overhead costs will decrease and the benefits of scale shrink. The second dichotomy, is whether actors without payment as core business will enter the market, or not. If payments can be seamlessly integrated in other applications, for instance a shopping experience, it is likely that payments will be initiated by actors who does not have payment initiations as core business. However, if it becomes hard to initiate payments on the banks account infrastructure, the attractiveness of having payments as a value adding service fades.