The Chinese Equity Market : An Economic Inquiry into Investment Opportunities and Risks

Abstract: The final aim of this thesis is to evaluate opportunities and risk factors of investing in China, in terms of pros and cons, and also to elaborate an optimal portfolio strategy. The pros regarding investments in China are (1) the economic liberalisation and reforms of the institutional framework; (2) the Chinese market’s huge potential and the high-growth IT and telecommunications sectors; (3) a favourable macroeconomic climate and an impressive development. The cons are (1) the mismanagement of the state-run companies; (2) the mainland exchanges’ intra-year volatility; (3) the export sector’s performance might decline; (4) the institutional framework is largely responsible for many risk factors; (5) a tougher competition climate after the entry in the WTO. Also, our calculations on an optimal portfolio strategy suggest that less risk-averse investors may want to consider the World/Shanghai portfolio, whereas the World/Shenzhen portfolio might instead suit the preferences of more risk-averse investors.