Energy Modelling in Residential Houses: A Case Study of Single Family Houses in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia

Abstract: Several studies have been conducted and revealed that household is the major energy consumer sector in developing countries like Ethiopia. This study focuses on evaluation of the existing residential energy consumption and projection of the energy demand.   The energy consumption has been studied by conducting survey on 350 households using stratified random sampling technique. Then the analyzed data have been used to model the energy demand and to project the future energy consumption till 2030 using LEAP (Long Range Energy Alternative Planning) simulation software.   The model is done based upon baseline scenario and energy efficiency improvement scenario (mitigation scenario). The total energy consumption in Bahir dar in 2014 is nearly 330 Giga watt hour per year, and of this value about 83.8% is used for cooking and TV, lighting, refrigerator, and water heater consume 7%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 1%  of the total energy and remaining 0.2% is consumed for other auxiliary appliances. The projection of the energy consumption in 2030 will be more 450 Giga-watt-hour with business as usual scenario compared to just less than 350 Giga-watt-hour with mitigation scenario. As the result of the poor consumption efficiency, households that use traditional biomass tend to have more primary energy intensity than household that use electricity. The consumption of electricity is projecting rapidly while charcoal and firewood will still be the significant energy sources. The potential for energy saving is from improving the efficiency of stoves. Comparing with developed countries, for example Sweden, where the energy in dwellings is mostly used for space and water heating and the energy saving mostly target on improving wall insulations, the energy saving on Bahir dar is based mostly on cooking. The findings obtained in this shows options to improve household energy efficiency intervention planning and to enhance the effectiveness of policy interventions. Further studies could be done on modeling of other sectors.