Trust and Uncertainty in International Relations

Abstract: The topic of international trust is contentious within International Relations. If states cannot trust each other doubts are cast on the possibility of them cooperating at all. According to offensive realism states can not trust each other because states can never be sure about other states’ intentions. In this paper I will test this theory by seeking an answer to the question does uncertainty rule out trust in international relations? I will do so by clarifying what uncertainty actually means in the context of International Relations, and argue that the offensive realist claim that states can never be sure about other states’ intentions is based on a trivial, technical and ultimately erroneous use of the term ‘certainty’. With the aid of epistemology and the philosophy of science I will show that the theory presented by offensive realism on the topic of trust is incoherent and therefore conclude that uncertainty does not, in fact, rule out trust in international relations. However, whether or not such trust can actually be achieved remains to be seen.