Location, location, location : A spatial analysis of the impact of artisanal and industrial mining sites on the local likelihood of violence.

Abstract: This research aims to answer the research question: what is the impact of mining sites on the local likelihood of violence? In contrast to most previous research, I do not only consider large-scale industrial mining but also smaller artisanal mining sites. In addition, this study looks at both two-sided and one-sided violence. Using a grid cell analysis of conflict events in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, I find evidence that artisanal mining sites increase the local likelihood of both one-sided violence and two-sided violence. This relationship is also observed for a spatially lagged variable of artisanal mining sites, implying that armed groupscan interact with natural resources in multiple ways and do not necessarily have to be in close proximity to the mining site for the effect to take place. However, I do not find evidence that large-scale mining sites increase the local likelihood of conflict. These findings emphasize the need for research to be context-sensitive and take into account the local dynamics of the complex relationship between natural resources and violence that likely differ between and within countries.