A Feasibility Study of Setting-up New Production Line : Either Partly Outsource a process or Fully Produce In-House

Abstract: This paper presents the feasibility study of setting up the new potting tray production line based on the two alternatives: partly outsource a process in the production line or wholly make all processes in-house. Both the qualitative and quantitative approaches have been exploited to analyze and compare between the make or buy decision. Also the nature of business, particularly SMEs, in Thailand has been presented, in which it has certain characteristics that influence the business doing and decision, especially to the supply chain management. The literature relating to the forecasting techniques, outsourcing decision framework, inventory management, and investment analysis have been reviewed and applied with the empirical findings. As this production line has not yet been in place, monthly sales volumes are forecasted within the five years time frame. Based on the forecasted sales volume, simulations are implemented to distribute the probability and project a certain demand required for each month. The projected demand is used as a baseline to determine required safety stock of materials, inventory cost, time between production runs and resources utilization for each option. Finally, in the quantitative analysis, the five years forecasted sales volume is used as a framework and several decision making-techniques such as break-even analysis, cash flow and decision trees are employed to come up with the results in financial aspects.