An oasis without water : a hydro-social investigation into how agricultural water use and management influences water scarcity in the Ferghana Valley, Central Asia

Abstract: Water scarcity can have severe implications for society; endangering human health and food security whilst also exacerbating social conflict around the world. These issues are exemplified in the case of the Ferghana Valley in Central Asia, where much of the valley suffers from water scarcity and conflicts despite having adequate water sources. This scarcity is primarily due to how water is used, managed and distributed rather than a lack of supply. Accounting for up to 90% of water withdrawals, agriculture has a key role in altering the flow and availability of water in the region. This thesis used a mixed method approach to better understand how agricultural water use and management may influence water scarcity on the regional and local scale in the valley. The approach utilised hydrological methodology to measure crop water consumption (CWC) and demand (CWD) for the whole valley in 2016 and social methodology to investigate water management challenges and stakeholder perceptions of water scarcity in water user associations (WUAs). The results were integrated and compared to assess spatial differences in scarcity within WUAs. The results revealed that agriculture consumes and demands a significant amount of water, accounting for 81% of water withdrawn for the valley in 2016. The integration of the results suggest that water scarcity varies spatially within and between different WUAs in the valley. Furthermore, several shared and unique challenges were discovered for management in the WUAs. Three main management challenges were discovered: distributional, technological and support based challenges. This thesis concludes that agriculture has an important role in driving the flow and altering the availability of water. Moreover, management within WUAs may have a significant impact on different dimensions of water scarcity through water use inefficiency, distributional inequity and by reinforcing temporal vulnerability to scarcity. Based on these results a number of intervention points and applications of the research are highlighted. Future research can expand and build on this research to enhance understandings of water scarcity and advance potential solutions.