Migration in the European Union: Determinants and Effects of Enlargement

Abstract: This paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of migration in the European Union with a focus on how enlargements and labour market restrictions affect migration flows. As of 2017, there are five potential candidates that can be part of the next enlargement. Therefore, it is important to analyse if the migration patterns changed with the expansion of the European Union in 2004 and 2007. In the analysis, we estimate the bilateral migration flows from ten origin countries to eleven destination countries in the period 1997-2014 by means of panel least squares. As a theoretical framework, we use the gravity model of migration to analyse the flows while assuming that individuals migrate based on a cost-benefit analysis. The results from the analysis indicate that the migration flows increased significantly in the years that the labour market restrictions were removed. Furthermore, the results from the EU enlargement show a positive effect on migration, although they are not significant across all specifications.