SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION OF A WASTE-FIRED CFB BOILER : Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Partial Least Squares Regression modeling (PLS-R)

Abstract: Heat and electricity production along with waste management are two modern day challenges for society. One of the possible solution to both of them is the incineration of household waste to produce heat and electricity. Incineration is a waste-to-energy treatment process, which can reduce the need for landfills and save the use of more valuable fuels, thereby conserving natural resources. This report/paper investigates the performance and emissions of a municipal solid waste (MSW) fueled industrial boiler by performing a system identification analysis using Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS-R) modeling. The boiler is located in Västerås, Sweden and has a maximum capacity of 167MW. It produces heat and electricity for the city of Västerås and is operated by Mälarenergi AB. A dataset containing 148 different boilers variables, measured with a one hour interval over 2 years, was used for the system identification analysis. The dataset was visually inspected to remove obvious outliers before beginning the analysis using a multivariate data analysis software called The Unscrambler X (Version 10.3, CAMO Software, Norway). Correlations found using PCA was taken in account during the PLSR modelling where models were created for one response each. Some variables had an unexpected impact on the models while others were fully logical regarding combustion theory. Results found during the system analysis process are regarded as reliable. Any errors may be due to outlier data points and model inadequacies.