Geo-spatial electricity demand assessment & hybrid off-grid solutions to support electrification efforts using OnSSET : the case study of Tanzania

Abstract: Increased access to modern energy fuels, especially electricity, is of high importance in order to promote sustainable development in developing countries. High quality planning processes using well developed energy models are required for globally increased electrification rates. The Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) may be used for such purposes as it can model least cost electrification strategies in a region based both on increased grid-connection rates as well as off-grid electricity generation technologies. In this thesis some new developments to the methodology behind OnSSET have been studied. The first task was to add a new method of estimating residential electricity demand using remote sensing data. The second task was to add hybrid energy systems to the list of electricity generation technologies in OnSSET. The additions were also examined by means of a least cost electrification case study of Tanzania.   Strong correlations were found between residential electricity demand and GDP, electricity price and nighttime lights. One of these correlations was used to propose a new iterative method for setting residential electricity access targets in OnSSET. Some problems with the usability of NTL were discussed, and further research was proposed to examine the universality of the residential electricity demand correlations. Furthermore two mini-grid hybrid energy systems were developed for inclusion in OnSSET. PV-diesel hybrid systems were found to be cost-competitive with the already existing mini-grid technologies, while wind-diesel systems were found to be more expensive. It was discussed that the option of another method of choosing technology in OnSSET which includes more factors than simply LCOE may better capture the benefits of hybrid energy systems and allow for more diverse analyses. Finally it was found that a combination of grid-connection and off-grid technologies may be the most economic choice to reach 100% electrification rate in Tanzania for a cost between 2 and 55 billion USD depending on the level of electricity access target and choice of discount rate. PV technologies were found to be the dominating off-grid technologies in most cases.