Assessing technological opportunities and threats: an
introduction to technology forecasting

Abstract: The current trend of globalization and rapid technological change has thrown
high-tech firms into a new situation. The overall corporate strategy is
today often strongly related to the organizations technological strategy.
Hence, for the long-term survival there are no other options than continuous
product development and sound investments in new technology.

Strategic planning is about developing and maintaining a viable fit between
the organizations objectives, skills, recourses and its environmental
surroundings. The ever-changing business environment produces vast amounts
of information concerning trends and events in the technological,
political/legal, social and economic environment that might have a
substantial impact on the organization and its strategies.

This highlights a need for technology forecasting methods. With some
planning in advance it is possible to invest in the right technology at the
right time and avoiding the bad investments.

This thesis briefly introduces the subject Technology Forecasting with some
commonly used forecasting techniques. It also presents, from a theoretic
perspective, a methodology for assessing technological opportunities and
threats using these methods. The theoretical model is then put in relation
to an empirical model developed by Telia, which formed the basis for their
futurological studies presented at the early nineties.