A model for long term electricity price forecasting for France

Abstract: Long-term price prognosis for electricity is the main tool for making decisions on investments, de-investments as well as on long-term agreements and other strategic actions. A number of models are used for analyzing the markets of interest and they are continuously improved and expanded. The goal is to improve a long-term price prognosis model for France and in order to do this the French hydro system is to be studied. Throughout the course of this master thesis, a hydro model is developed with the help of dynamic programming. The problem is first considered from a deterministic approach where the particular characteristics of the French power system and the relevant assumptions for the model are studied. The model is then expanded with stochastic variables that consider variability of the inflow in the system. Both the deterministic and stochastic model have been created using MATLAB. Even though the models are applied to the French hydro system, they can be used on other system that wants to be studied with a single reservoir approach.