Ekonomiska konsekvenser av förändrad röttolerans vid Bravikens Pappersbruk

Abstract: The competition for Norway spruce pulp wood in Central Sweden increases, forcing the supply-structure of Holmen to face two important challenges. Firstly, it is of the outmost strategically importance to secure the long-term supply of Norway spruce pulp wood to the industries. Secondly, Holmen desires to increase the obtainable volume of Norway spruce pulp wood. This would enable the company to choose volumes in the lower price-segments and thereby decrease the dependency of costly marginal volumes. As this work shows, one part in managing these challenges could be to lower the quality standards concerning root rot (Heterobasidium annosum). Facts presented in the work shows that: 1. Technically, the TMP-industry of Braviken can handle a much more rotted pulp wood than that used today, although the cost of refinement increases. As a result of an increased acceptance of rotted wood the supply-cost ought to decrease. The reductions of the supply-costs will probably overcompensate the increment of processing-costs. To assure the theoretical conclusions of this work to be correct, a limited practical trial is recommended before the changes are carried out on a full scale practice. 2. The assortment barrmassaved (mixed coniferous pulpwood) contains a large amount of Norway spruce pulp wood that could be used at Holmens Norway spruce pulp wood consuming industries using the quality requirements of today. 3. The most impressionable factor in changing the flow of Norway spruce pulp wood from barrmassaved to the assortment used at Holmens industries Braviken and Hallsta is probably the behavior of operators of the harvester/forwarder. Two steps meant to change their behavior are presented. Firstly, a redistribution of the economical incentive for sorting is proposed. Secondly, an increased rot-tolerance at the industry is recommended. Thus, the rot-tolerance during harvest and sorting is estimated to approach the economically optimal tolerance-level. 4. There are strong strategically and economic reasons for lowering the quality standards concerning root rot. With reservations for simplifications and sources of error it is estimated that: 1. Transporting the extra volume to Braviken would cut the total cost by 2,9 million kr/year. 2. If 45 % of the extra volume is transported to Hallsta, the total cost would decrease by almost 9 million kr/year. 3. By using a stricter sorting, Region Norrköping could lower the amount of Norway Spruce in the barrmassa sold to the Skärblacka industry. If that amount could be halved from todays 60.000 m3fub to 30.000 m3fub and the sorted Norway Spruce be transported to Hallsta, the total cost would be cut by more than 2 million kr/year.