Boom goes bust goes crisis - Fluctuations in household debt during financial crises in Sweden 1873-2015

Abstract: In this thesis I examine fluctuations and growth rates of household debt before, during and after financial crises in Sweden 1873-2015. The results show similar patterns in fluctuations between crisis and their adjacent years in Sweden. The results also show a significantly higher volatility of household debt growth rate fluctuations before, during and after financial crises compared to the rest of the period. Through previous research and with the Kindleberger-Minksy-theory as a theoretical framework I argue that the fluctuation patterns and its volatility is a good indicator for predicting future financial crisis in Sweden. Given the fluctuation of household debt growth rate of recent years I argue that Sweden is not heading for financial crisis in the near future.