Scenario Development for the City of Stockholm Towards a Fossil Fuel Free City by 2050

Abstract: The City of Stockholm’s energy and climate goals are analyzed and projected in several scenarios. Using the year 2015 as the baseline year, a database covering the energy performance and fuel use within the City is created. This starting point is used to project the performance of the City until the year 2050. The projection is made with the use of scenarios and the simulation software LEAP by formulating scenarios that combine ongoing, planned and conceivable measures. All these scenarios aim to the reduction of emissions with the long term aim to set the City of Stockholm a fossil fuel free city by 2050. Various paths can be followed towards that goal and these are analyzed and classified based on cost and applicability. According to the simulation of scenarios, the immediate action and the long-term planning are shown to play an essential role in achieving the City’s goals. In addition, the significance of policy, the behavioral aspect and the continuous gradual development are found to be three basic pillars towards the target that the City has set. Specifically, the City should focus on energy efficiency in both generation and utilization. Available technology can help to this direction at an affordable cost and with remarkable potential. However, in order to achieve the target of an entirely fossil fuel free city by the year 2050, the City of Stockholm needs to support a shift of transportation modes towards public transport. Currently, the transportation sector has a low share of clean fuels and is likely going to be the most challenging sector to affect. Among the challenges in the transportation sector comes the fact that there is always a given risk when trying to introduce a new dominant fuel, based on assumptions of future car fleets and volatility of markets. Biofuels may for instance lead to a shortage in the market with higher biofuel and food prices as a result while changing the entire vehicle fleet takes 20 years on average. The best possible scenario does demonstrate one possible path toward a fossil fuel free City of Stockholm 2050 by taking a number of aggressive actions. This does not account for possible new technologies nor changes in the economy at large.