Modeling the optimal energy mix in 2030 : Impact of the integration of renewable energy sources

Abstract: The European Council has recently set objectives in the matter of energy and climate policies and thus the interest in renewable energies is more than ever at stake. However, the introduction of renewable energies in an energy mix is also accelerated and altered by political targets. The two most widespread renewable technologies, photovoltaic and wind farms, have specific characteristics - decentralized, intermittency, uncertain production forecast up until a few hours ahead - that oblige to adapt the network and the current conventional generator control. By using optimization techniques, it is possible to characterize the optimal energy mix (i.e. the optimal share of every power technology in all the countries considered). In this paper, the optimization function is defined as the sum of the yearly fixed cost of deploying a certain amount of installed capacity with the cost of electricity generation over the while year. Then the aim of the model is to evaluate the energy mix of least cost. One can imagine multiple applications for this model, depending on which issue is to solve. Two case studies are developed in this report as examples. Renewable technologies are modifying the organization of the electricity market because of their specific characteristics. The first case study aims at quantifying the additional cost due to the integration of renewable energies. The second is targeted to characterize the impact of the integration of green energy sources on the deployment of Demand Response.