Essays about: "ARIMA modelling"

Showing result 1 - 5 of 17 essays containing the words ARIMA modelling.

  1. 1. On modelling OMXS30 stocks - comparison between ARMA models and neural networks

    University essay from Uppsala universitet/Matematiska institutionen

    Author : Irina Zarankina; [2023]
    Keywords : ARMA; ARIMA; LSTM; time series; statistics;

    Abstract : This thesis compares the results of the performance of the statistical Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the neural network Long short-term model (LSTM) on a data set, which represents a market index. Both models are used to predict monthly, daily, and minute close prices of the OMX Stockholm 30 Index. READ MORE

  3. 2. Portfolio Risk Modelling in Venture Debt

    University essay from KTH/Matematisk statistik

    Author : John Eriksson; Jacob Holmberg; [2023]
    Keywords : Startup Default Probability; Venture Debt; Gaussian Copula; Value-at-Risk; Expected Shortfall; Exposure at Default; Loss Given Default; Forecast; Linear Dynamic System; ARIMA Time Series; Monte Carlo Simulation; Linear Regression; Central Limit Theorem;

    Abstract : This thesis project is an experimental study on how to approach quantitative portfolio credit risk modelling in Venture Debt portfolios. Facing a lack of applicable default data from ArK and publicly available sets, as well as seeking to capture companies that fail to service debt obligations before defaulting per se, we present an approach to risk modeling based on trends in revenue. READ MORE

  4. 3. Short-term forecasting Swedish annual real GDP growth using SARIMA models : A study in forecasting current year Swedish annual real GDP growth using SARIMA models with the Box-Jenkins methodology as a general framework

    University essay from Uppsala universitet/Nationalekonomiska institutionen

    Author : Mark Becker; [2023]
    Keywords : SARIMA; ARIMA; ARMA; Box-Jenkins; Real GDP; MAE;

    Abstract : Simulated current year annual real GDP growth forecasts for 2015-2021 are made using a chosen SARIMA model, with the Box-Jenkins methodology as a general modelling framework. The forecasts are compared to the actual outcomes and the Absolute Errors (AE) and the Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) are calculated for each year. READ MORE

  5. 4. Statistical modelling of Bitcoin volatility : Has the sanctions on Russia had any effect on Bitcoin?

    University essay from Stockholms universitet/Statistiska institutionen

    Author : Mathilda Schönbeck; Fatima Salman; [2022]
    Keywords : Bitcoin; forecasting; volatility; logarithmic return; ARCH; GARCH; ARIMA model; dynamic regression;

    Abstract : This thesis aims to fit and compare different time series models namely the ARIMA-model, conditional heteroscedastic models and lastly a dynamic regression model with ARIMA error to Bitcoin closing price data that spans over 5 consecutive years. The purpose is to evaluate if the sanction on Russia had any effect on the cryptocurrency Bitcoin. READ MORE

  6. 5. On Modelling Ancillary Services Markets: A Time Series Approach

    University essay from KTH/Matematik (Avd.)

    Author : Erik Murray; [2022]
    Keywords : ARIMA; SARIMA; GARCH; load balancing; ancillary services; electrical grids; FCR-D; ARIMA; SARIMA; GARCH; lastbalans; stödtjänster; kraftnät; FCR-D 2;

    Abstract : So-called ancillary services (AS) have always been critically important for the functioning of an electrical grid, and are becoming even more so with the advent of renewable energy sources. Ancillary services are traded on open markets, and trading on these markets is arguably even more difficult to model than on traditional markets. READ MORE