Essays about: "Election forecasting"
Found 4 essays containing the words Election forecasting.
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1. Comparing forecast combinations to traditional time series forcasting models : An application into Swedish public opinion
University essay from Uppsala universitet/Statistiska institutionenAbstract : The objective of this paper is to retrospectively evaluate forecast models for polling data, to be used prospectively for the Swedish general election in 2022. One of the simplest ways of forecasting an election result is through opinion polls, and using the latest observation as the forecast. READ MORE
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2. Election Forecasting in a Multiparty System
University essay from Göteborgs universitet/Institutionen för nationalekonomi med statistikAbstract : This bachelor thesis in statistics covers the subject of election forecasting in a multiparty system, using polling data, that is data collected to measure party support, and dynamic linear models (DLMs) with Kalman filtering. In terms of decision-making the outcome of an election can be thought of as an uncertainty. READ MORE
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3. Forecasting Election Results: A Bayesian Frequentist Comparison
University essay from Lunds universitet/Statistiska institutionenAbstract : We present a Bayesian and frequentist comparison when forecasting elections through polls. Our focus is on studying the differences of these approaches in forecasting elections. An evaluation of the fit is performed using the odds ratio. READ MORE
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4. The forecasting ability of implicit risk-neutral density function: A study of planned economic events in Sweden
University essay from Handelshögskolan i Stockholm/Institutionen för finansiell ekonomiAbstract : Financial institutions spend large amounts of money on gaining accurate information. The information they acquire is often kept for themselves and used in order to trade and make profits. When they use the information it is though implicitly put into the prices of the instruments. READ MORE
