Essays about: "Volatility forecasts"

Showing result 1 - 5 of 66 essays containing the words Volatility forecasts.

  1. 1. Volatility Forecasting - A comparative study of different forecasting models.

    University essay from

    Author : Emil Sturesson; Anton Wennström; [2023-06-29]
    Keywords : Volatility; GARCH; EGARCH; t-GAS; HAR-RV; Realized GARCH; Volatility Forecasting; Volatility Modelling;

    Abstract : This study evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting performance of different volatility mod- els. When applied to XACT OMXS30, we use GARCH(1,1), EGARCH(1,1), and t- GAS(1,1) to forecast squared daily returns while Realized GARCH(1,1) and HAR-RV are used to forecast Realized Variance. READ MORE

  3. 2. Does Implied- or Historical Volatility predict Realized Volatility? : An empirical study conducted to find evidence for which out of historical volatility or implied volatility better forecasts the future volatility.

    University essay from Linnéuniversitetet/Institutionen för ekonomistyrning och logistik (ELO)

    Author : Gustav Sjöberg; Gustav Oom; [2023]
    Keywords : Implied volatility; historical volatility; realized volatility;

    Abstract : This study tests if historical volatility- and implied volatility has significant predictive power over future realized volatility and if so which one of the two is the superior predictor. The study is conducted by using historical volatility of the OMXS30 and implied volatility from OMXS30 call options during the period 2012-2023. READ MORE

  4. 3. Is it possible to forecast which firms will be shorted? : Evidence from S&P 500

    University essay from Linnéuniversitetet/Institutionen för ekonomistyrning och logistik (ELO)

    Author : Joakim Mårs; Tobias Stark; [2022]
    Keywords : Short selling; S P 500; fundamental ratios; abnormal returns; OLS regression; significance levels; forecasts; institutional ownership;

    Abstract : This thesis aims to examine whether it is possible to forecast which firmswill be shorted. To do this a regression was constructed using a sample of thecompanies currently included in S&P 500. READ MORE

  5. 4. Time Dependencies Between Equity Options Implied Volatility Surfaces and Stock Loans, A Forecast Analysis with Recurrent Neural Networks and Multivariate Time Series

    University essay from KTH/Matematik (Avd.)

    Author : Simon Wahlberg; [2022]
    Keywords : RNN; LSTM; GRU; vector autoregression; implied volatility surface; stock loan; equity options; multivariate time-series analysis; financial mathematics.; Rekursiva neurala nätverk; LSTM; GRU; VAR; implicerade volatilitetsytor; aktielån; aktieoptioner; multidimensionell tidsserieanalys; finansiell matematik.;

    Abstract : Synthetic short positions constructed by equity options and stock loan short sells are linked by arbitrage. This thesis analyses the link by considering the implied volatility surface (IVS) at 80%, 100%, and 120% moneyness, and stock loan variables such as benchmark rate (rt), utilization, short interest, and transaction trends to inspect time-dependent structures between the two assets. READ MORE

  6. 5. On the Value at Risk Forecasting of the Market Risk for Large Portfolios based on Dynamic Factor Models with Multivariate GARCH Specifications

    University essay from Uppsala universitet/Statistiska institutionen

    Author : Axel Eurenius Larsson; [2022]
    Keywords : Dynamic factor model; Value at Risk; Forecasting; Conditional Correlation GARCH.;

    Abstract : Market risk is the risk of capital loss due to unexpected changes in market prices. One risk measure used to estimate market risk is Value at Risk (VaR). The common historical simulation methodology of VaR forecasting usually does not capture the time-varying volatilities associated with financial data. READ MORE