Essays about: "forecast skill"

Showing result 1 - 5 of 8 essays containing the words forecast skill.

1. 1. Behind the early warning: Improving impact-based forecasting of riverine floods in Malawi using passive microwave remote sensing

   University essay from Lunds universitet/Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap

   Author : Lone Mokkenstorm; [2021]
   Keywords : Physical Geography; Ecosystem Analysis; Early Warning; Riverine Floods; Humanitarian Work; Impact-based Forecasting; Malawi; Earth and Environmental Sciences;

   Abstract : This thesis investigates whether freely available, coarse-resolution, Passive Microwave Remote Sensing (PMRS) data (37 GHz) can be effectively used for early warning systems for floods in Malawi. The Shire River Basin in Chikwawa and the smaller-scale North Rukuru River Basin in Karonga were studied using two alternative, ratio-based satellite indices that make use of the signal difference between wet and dry pixel cells: The m index and the rcmc index. READ MORE

3. 2. Work or Shirk : Finding the optimal enforced effort in activation and evaluating the job stimulus for social benefit recipients, by introducing effective leisure in a labor supply model

   University essay from Linnéuniversitetet/Institutionen för nationalekonomi och statistik (NS)

   Author : Oliver Rosengren; [2021]
   Keywords : Labor supply; benefits; social assistance; social benefits; job stimulus; earnings disregard; extensive margin; employment; shirking; effort; Arbetsutbud; bidrag; socialtjänst; ekonomiskt bistånd; socialbidrag; försörjningsstöd; jobbstimulans; ansträngning; sysselsättning; extensiva marginalen;

   Abstract : Social benefits were forecasted to increase by 13 percent to 2022 before the pandemic hit the economy (Prop. 2018/19:1). In the latest forecast it has almost doubled: an increase of 24 percent to 2022 (Prop. 2020/21:1). READ MORE

4. 3. Nowcasting with Dynamic Factor Model and Real-Time Vintage Data: A financial market actor's perspective

   University essay from Lunds universitet/Matematisk statistik

   Author : Filip Östlund; Marcel Attar; [2020]
   Keywords : Nowcasting; Macroeconomic Prediction; Dynamic Factor Model; DFM; Pseudo Real-Time Vintage data; U.S. GDP Growth Rate; Financial Market Actor; Mathematics and Statistics;

   Abstract : We develop and examine a dynamic factor nowcasting model (DFM) from the perspective of a financial market participant. The first point of analysis is the examination of its performance. Unlike other papers, we evaluate with daily frequency so that the performance metric reflects a continuous nowcasting signal. READ MORE

5. 4. Temporal Consistency of the UERRA Regional Reanalysis: Investigating the Forecast Skill

   University essay from Uppsala universitet/Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära

   Author : Adam von Kraemer; [2018]
   Keywords : Temporal consistency; reanalysis; forecast skill; UERRA; HARMONIE; Tidsmässig konsistens; återanalys; prognoskvalitet; UERRA; HARMONIE;

   Abstract : Weather forecasting has improved greatly since the middle of the 20th century, thanks to better forecasting models, an evolved weather observing system, and improved ways of assimilating the observation data. However, these large systematical improvements make it difficult to use the weather data for climatological studies. READ MORE

6. 5. Evaluation of Seasonal Inflow Forecasting to Support Multipurpose Reservoir Management: A case study for the Upper Maule River Basin, Chile

   University essay from Lunds universitet/Avdelningen för Teknisk vattenresurslära

   Author : Johan Visser; [2017]
   Keywords : Seasonal Forecasting; Reservoir Management; Ensemble Streamflow Prediction; Downscaling; Maule; Earth and Environmental Sciences;

   Abstract : Seasonal hydrological forecasts of future streamflow volumes can provide water resources managers with valuable information to improve long-term water resources planning and water use efficiency. The latest generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models provides an opportunity for the prediction of hydroclimatic variables (e.g. READ MORE