Essays about: "inflation forecast"

Showing result 1 - 5 of 38 essays containing the words inflation forecast.

  1. 1. Are Distributional Variables Useful for Forecasting With the Phillips Curve?

    University essay from Handelshögskolan i Stockholm/Institutionen för nationalekonomi

    Author : Elsa Rosengren; Pippa Johns; [2024]
    Keywords : Distributional Variables; Heterogeneous Agents; Inflation; Phillips Curve; Inequality;

    Abstract : Does information on the distribution of wealth and income help us forecast aggregate macroeconomic variables? In this thesis, we study how adding such distributional variables to a standard forecasting model affects the forecast accuracy, in the context of inflation forecasting. Using the simulated inflation forecasting approach of Atkeson and Ohanian (2001), we perform a horse race between a textbook NAIRU Phillips curve to an extension augmented with variables from the wealth and income distributions. READ MORE

  3. 2. Unveiling the Predictive Power

    University essay from Lunds universitet/Nationalekonomiska institutionen

    Author : Alex Lundvall; Gabriel Ahonen; [2023]
    Keywords : Stock market returns; Macroeconomic indicators; Vector Autoregression model; Granger Causality test; Business and Economics;

    Abstract : To obtain excessive returns on the stock market, investors should be able to effectively forecast what drives the fluctuations of the stock market. The usage of macroeconomic factors as indicators for stock market performances has been utilized more profoundly in recent times. READ MORE

  4. 3. Can Machine Learning improve inflation forecasting?

    University essay from Lunds universitet/Nationalekonomiska institutionen

    Author : Emil Hansson; [2023]
    Keywords : Inflation Forecast; Machine Learning; Rolling Window; Time Series; Business and Economics;

    Abstract : This paper aims to compare and evaluate the performance of inflation forecasting performance for benchmark time series models and machine learning models. The process is performed for both a developed economy, the US, and an emerging economy, Mexico. READ MORE

  5. 4. A "new" Consumer Price Index (CPI) for monetary policy decisions in Sweden : How does a "new" technological CPI compare to the traditional CPI in measuring inflation and influencing monetary policy decisions?

    University essay from Jönköping University/IHH, Nationalekonomi

    Author : Josef Landén; [2023]
    Keywords : Consumer Price Index; Inflation; Technology; Monetary Policies; and Forecast;

    Abstract : This study proposes a “new" consumer price index (CPI) and investigates the influence of Sweden's monetary policy on the new index level and its variations over time. Unlike the traditional CPI that the SCB uses, the "new" CPI tries to consider technology improvements by using macro data. READ MORE

  6. 5. Beyond the Headlines: Swedish Inflation and Labour Market Tightness During 2020-2022

    University essay from Handelshögskolan i Stockholm/Institutionen för nationalekonomi

    Author : Jonas Isak Alveteg; Alexander Manieri; [2023]
    Keywords : Inflation; Labour Market Tightness;

    Abstract : This thesis explores Swedish inflation and labour market tightness during 2020-2022. We decompose headline inflation into core inflation, captured by the weighted median inflation, and headline shocks. We use the modified Phillips curve as presented in Ball et al. READ MORE