Essays about: "out-of-sample"
Showing result 11 - 15 of 172 essays containing the word out-of-sample.
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11. Forecasting Monthly Swedish Air Traveler Volumes
University essay from Uppsala universitet/Statistiska institutionenAbstract : In this paper we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exercise for monthly Swedish air traveler volumes. The models considered are multiplicative seasonal ARIMA, Neural network autoregression, Exponential smoothing, the Prophet model and a Random Walk as a benchmark model. READ MORE
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12. Forecasting Swedish Inflation and Policy Rates Using Random Forests and Bullard's Modernized Taylor Rule
University essay from Handelshögskolan i Stockholm/Institutionen för nationalekonomiAbstract : This paper examines whether the Riksbank could have predicted the historic inflationary surge in Sweden in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and warned the Swedish public prior to embarking on the most aggressive policy rate-hike cycle since the global financial crisis. I study the matter in two steps. READ MORE
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13. Decoding the Winning Strategy - An in-depth study of Swedish closed-end funds
University essay from Lunds universitet/Nationalekonomiska institutionenAbstract : The predictability of stock returns, prediction of buyout targets and value creation by activist owners are well-researched areas. However, Swedish closed-end funds' outstanding performance has received little attention. READ MORE
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14. Forecasting gold returns using principal component analysis from a large number of predictors
University essay from Lunds universitet/Nationalekonomiska institutionen; Lunds universitet/Statistiska institutionenAbstract : Gold is known in the financial world to be an important asset in unstable periods, especially as a hedge against inflation. If the gold price can be forecasted, it will be possible to strategically invest in gold rather than acquire it as a last-minute hedge against economic downturns. READ MORE
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15. Yield Curve Dynamics - Exploring Fundamental Factor Sensitivities
University essay from Handelshögskolan i Stockholm/Institutionen för finansiell ekonomiAbstract : Factor investing has gained popularity in recent decades, but while ample research has been conducted in asset classes such as equities and currencies, comparatively less attention has been devoted to the potential of investing in government bonds. This study explores fundamental factor sensitivities on the yield curve spread prior to and after 2018 making the last five years, that are coined by increased volatility in expected returns for government bonds, volatile growth developments, and heightened inflation, a true out-of-sample period to previous research. READ MORE